Silicon Metal Prices Declined, Polysilicon Prices Were Basically Stable [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM December 10:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices remained stable this week. However, with recent declines in raw coal and coking coal prices, silicon coal prices in some regions are expected to soften. The average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/mt, caking silicon coal prices ranged from 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/mt, in Inner Mongolia about 1,260 yuan/mt, in Gansu silicon mixed coal averaged about 930 yuan/mt, and pellet coal averaged about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: Approaching year-end, most mines cut production due to environmental and safety impacts, tightening raw coal supply. This transmission to the silicon coal segment was limited, as silicon coal is a relatively small branch for coal washing plants; supply side thus maintained a produce based on sales pace.

Demand: From the operating rates of downstream silicon plants, although there was a slight WoW increase, the impact was limited, so overall demand for silicon coal raw material remained relatively steady.

Silicon Metal

Price: Silicon metal futures fell significantly for two consecutive days recently. The SI2601 contract closed at 8,340 yuan/mt yesterday, down 335 yuan/mt from the previous day. SMM East China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt. Spot cargo prices from futures-spot traders followed the futures decline; purchases by some downstream users and traders increased, with good transactions pushing the spot-futures price spread for some quotes up by 50-100 yuan/mt. As prices fell rapidly, producers mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach, either holding quotes steady from last week or not offering prices.

Production:

Operating rates diverged between north and south China. Enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan continued production cuts during the dry season, with operating rates continuing to decline. In early December, a few northern enterprises increased or resumed production, pushing operating rates higher. Potential air pollution impacts on production in Xinjiang still require monitoring.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM statistics on December 4 showed total silicon metal social inventory in major regions was 558,000 mt, up 8,000 mt WoW. This included 131,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 427,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot warehouse portions), up 6,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,500-13,700 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt WoW. As DMC market prices gradually stabilized, procurement sentiment among downstream rigid demand customers became more rational. However, with end-use market demand remaining sluggish, complete price transmission to end-users still requires time to digest.

D4: Yesterday's quotes were 13,500-14,200 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quotes were 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw silicone: Yesterday's quotes were 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quotes were 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

With the overall operating rate of monomer enterprises slightly decreasing recently, supply showed a small contraction.

Inventory:

This week, monomer enterprises mainly focused on delivering pre-sold orders, with inventory WoW relatively stable.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.7-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 49-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 52 yuan/kg. The market was largely stable, with some polysilicon enterprises still holding quotes firm. News circulated about the establishment of a related platform company (registered capital 3 billion yuan), and the market is awaiting further actions.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in December was expected to be 113,500 mt, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia. As of now, no major capacity reduction actions are expected in January.

Inventory:

This week, polysilicon inventory rose slightly. Recently, wafer enterprises' procurement enthusiasm was limited, but some low-price orders from the previous period were shipped, leading to a slight inventory buildup.

Wafer

Price

The market price for 18X wafers was 1.1-1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.15-1.2 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.45-1.5 yuan/piece. If raw material costs do not fluctuate significantly, wafer prices are expected to remain basically stable in the short term.

Production

In December, wafer enterprises cut production significantly, by about 16%, setting a new low for the year. Similar situations were faced by multiple downstream sectors. According to the survey, this round of production cuts was not due to disorderly competition but rather a consensus decision made under the dual pressures of insufficient domestic demand and high procurement costs.

Inventory

The rate of inventory accumulation for wafer enterprises slowed down. Solar cell plants were not strongly willing to restock, lowering their turnover inventory by around 5-7 days. Currently, the total wafer inventory approached a reasonable level.

High-purity quartz sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner layer sand was 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand at 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand at 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. Negotiations for imported sand have entered the second phase and are currently in a stalemate, with prices expected to decline.

Production

In December, domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises implemented relatively significant production cuts, partly due to seasonal factors and partly because reduced wafer production schedules corresponding to crucible supply led to weakened demand, prompting enterprises to appropriately cut production to match supply and demand.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly, while purchasing volumes by crucible enterprises decreased.